A much welcomed uptick in Bay Area hospitals’ intensive care availability and slower coronavirus transmission rates paint a hopeful outlook for the weeks ahead, but there was no indication Sunday as to when the region can emerge from the stay-at-home order that’s stymied much of normal life.
State health officials said Sunday that projections for four weeks out in the Bay Area do not meet criteria to lift the restrictions, and that an update will be forthcoming on Monday.
Hopes had increased when, after lingering in the single digits for weeks, the Bay Area’s ICU availability leaped to 23.4%, in data released Saturday, reflecting Friday’s status. That was an unusually significant jump from 6.5% a day earlier, and appeared to signal that the worst of the surge could be in the past. The sentiment was bolstered by a statement Sunday sent to The Chronicle from Ali Bay, a spokesperson for the state Department of Public Health.
“We see promising signs that California is slowly emerging from the most intense stage of this pandemic,” the statement said.
The rate of positive tests in California over the past 14 days was 9.8% — a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from the prior two weeks, the state data showed on Sunday. California reported 24,111 new coronavirus infections Saturday, which was less than a 1% increase over Friday’s totals, the data show.
But in San Francisco, Sunday brought a pause in the good news that had triggered Mayor London Breed to forecast on Friday that the city soon might be able to “start reopening under California’s guidelines” due to a drop in transmission rates. A day after recording its fewest new coronavirus infections in two months, 111, San Francisco reported an uptick Sunday, 283 new cases. New infections had dropped below 200 each day since Monday, but Sunday was more in line with last week’s higher daily infections.
San Francisco also recorded one of its higher death totals of the month, 15, after a week of single-digit or zero-death days.
City officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the latest statistics, but single-day trends have often proved misleading over the course of the pandemic.
Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley, said he is “tentatively confident” that the current surge, which began at the end of November, has crested.
“That’s what the data looks like and, frankly, it’s what the data looks like nationally,” except for a couple of other states, he said. Still, he added, there’s not an obvious end in sight. “What we see with the last two surges here in the United States and in California is we get a surge and a crest, but we never go back to where we were before. It’s like going up steps.”
Under California’s system, the regional stay-home order is supposed to be lifted when a region’s ICU availability is projected to equal or exceed 15% looking four weeks ahead. The projections specifically look at ICU capacity at the end of the four-week period.
For example, the state public health department would analyze Monday’s data to make projections for Feb. 22. The projections are based on current regional ICU capacity, community transmission rates and regional case rates. The state analyzes the data twice a week.
State officials reported Sunday that roughly 2.2 million vaccination shots have been administered statewide out of the 4.1 million doses distributed as it rushes to recover from a slower-than-hoped initial rollout.
The vaccination picture nationally caused Xavier Becerra, the former California attorney general tapped by President Biden to be the U.S. health secretary, to voice frustration Sunday over the long lines, supply lags and confusion about where and when to get shots.
“The plane is in a nose dive and we’re going to pull it up,” he told CNN. “That’s not America. ... That’s not the way we treat those we consider vulnerable in need of the vaccine the most.”
Becerra said he could not project when all Americans who want a shot will be able to get one. Biden has pledged to distribute 100 million vaccines in his first 100 days in office.
In Placer County last week, a person died hours after receiving a vaccination, having tested positive for the coronavirus in late December, the Placer County Sheriff’s Office said Saturday. The county’s public health department did not administer the vaccine, officials said. Sheriff’s Office officials said Sunday they had no further information.
San Francisco Chronicle staff writers Lauren Hernandez and Jill Tucker contributed to this report.
Tatiana Sanchez is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: tatiana.sanchez@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @TatianaYSanchez
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Is the Bay Area close to reopening? Here’s the latest from health officials - San Francisco Chronicle
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