As coronavirus case rates continue to drop in the Bay Area and across California, officials suggested this week that several counties may soon advance out of the most restrictive purple reopening tier.
On Jan. 25, Gov. Gavin Newsom lifted regional stay-at-home orders, returning most counties to the purple “widespread” tier in the state’s four-tier color-coded framework. Each California county must meet specific thresholds to move to less restrictive tiers, allowing it to reopen more businesses and other activities at greater capacities.
Currently, all but six counties in the state are in the purple tier — but Newsom said Tuesday he anticipates a “substantial number” will move to the red tier next week, and “even more in the subsequent weeks” if the trends continue.
“We’ll see counties move, not just from purple to red, but more and more red to orange, and I anticipate based on the number that are already in orange, you’ll see many more in that yellow tier as well,” he said.
In the Bay Area, the metrics for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties place them in the lead to move into the red tier the soonest. Santa Clara County health officer Dr. Sara Cody said Wednesday that she expects the county to move into the red tier soon, but didn’t have an anticipated date.
Here’s a look at the tier system and where Bay Area counties stand:
How does the tier system work?
The state’s color-coded tier system has four levels: purple (widespread), red (substantial), orange (moderate) and yellow (minimal). Tier assignment is based on three factors:
• New cases per 100,000 people (adjusted by the state to account for the amount of testing)
• Positive test rate, which is the seven-day average percentage of total tests that come back positive for COVID-19.
• A health equity metric keyed to the positive test rate in disadvantaged communities. This metric applies to counties with a population greater than 106,000, and the threshold is applied only when deciding whether a county can move to a less restrictive tier.
Has anything changed with the framework?
Before the state’s winter surge, updated tier assignments were released every Tuesday. But the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy website now notes that tier assignments can happen any day of the week and more than once a week if health officials determine from the data that intervention is needed. Counties can also be moved back more than one tier.
How does a county advance?
A county must remain in a tier for a minimum of three weeks before being allowed to move to a less restrictive tier. It must meet the metric thresholds for the next less restrictive tier during the prior two consecutive weeks. Counties can only advance one tier at a time.
How does a county move back?
If a county’s adjusted case rate or positive test rate fall back to levels in a more restrictive tier for two consecutive weekly periods, the state reviews the most recent 10 days of data and determines whether county is improving and can stay in its current tier, or getting worse and must revert back to a more restrictive tier. If a county’s metrics fall into two tiers, it is assigned the more restrictive tier.
Where does each Bay Area county currently stand?
All nine Bay Area counties are still in the purple tier. The latest tier assessment, from Tuesday, shows the data from the week ending on Feb. 6.
Alameda: 12.6 adjusted case rate; 3.6% positive test rate; 5.9% health equity metric.
Contra Costa: 16.4 adjusted case rate; 4.6% positive test rate; 7.3% health equity metric.
Marin: 8.9 adjusted case rate; 2.4% positive test rate; 3.8% health equity metric.
Napa: 14.2 adjusted case rate; 4.6% positive test rate; 6.1% health equity metric.
San Francisco: 8.9 adjusted case rate; 2.6% positive test rate; 5.4% health equity metric.
San Mateo: 9.6 adjusted case rate; 2.8% positive test rate; 4.6% health equity metric.
Santa Clara: 10.9 adjusted case rate; 3.2% positive test rate; 6.5% health equity metric.
Solano: 18.4 adjusted case rate; 5.3% positive test rate; 6.8% health equity metric.
Sonoma: 13.8 adjusted case rate; 4% positive test rate; 5.4% health equity metric.
Kellie Hwang is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kellie.hwang@sfchronicle.com
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February 19, 2021 at 04:03AM
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Here’s how close each Bay Area county is to reaching the red reopening tier - San Francisco Chronicle
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