It's not often that you see a first place team in the NFL open as an underdog, but that's exactly what will be happening this week in two different games.
In the early odds for Week 10, the Seahawks and Bills have both opened as an underdog. Although the Seahawks are currently 6-2 and tied for the best record in the NFC, they've opened as a 1.5-point underdog to the Rams. As for the Bills, even though they're the only team in the NFL that currently has seven wins, they opened as a 1.5-point underdog to the Cardinals.
The fact that both teams are a 1.5-point underdog is notable, because before this week, there had only been two other games the entire season where a team was favored by exactly 1.5 points. In Week 3, the Bills were favored by 1.5 over the Rams and ending up winning a wild one 35-32. In Week 8, the Panthers were favored by 1.5 over the Falcons and ended up losing 25-17.
Besides the Seahawks and Bills, there are two other teams that currently have a winning record who both opened as an underdog this week and those two teams are the Colts (at Titans) and Bears (vs. Vikings).
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With that in mind, let's get to the rest of the early odds for Week 10.
NFL Week 10 early odds
(All lines from William Hill Sportsbook unless noted, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Colts (5-3) at Titans (6-2), Thursday
Opening line: Titans, -2.5 points
The Colts have dominated this series for nearly a decade. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Colts are 13-3 straight-up against the Titans and 10-4-2 ATS. One reason you might want to stay away from the Colts though is because they're 2-7 straight-up in their past nine road games (3-5-1 ATS). The Colts are also just 3-11 straight-up in their past 14 primetime games (6-7-1 ATS). As for the Titans, they're 3-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past four home games, including Sunday's 24-17 win over the Bears where they covered as a 6-point favorite.
Opening line: Browns, -2.5 points
The Browns probably aren't a team you want to bet on right now and that's because they've gone three straight games without covering the spread. They're also just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games. As for the Texans, although they beat Jacksonville on Sunday, that's actually the only team they've been able to beat this season. Through eight weeks, the Texans are 2-0 straight-up against the Jaguars and 0-6 against everyone else and the Browns fall into the everyone else category. On the ATS end, the Texans are 1-7 on the season, which is tied with the Jets for the second-worst mark in the NFL this year.
Washington (2-6) at Lions (3-5)
Opening line: Lions, -5.5 points
Washington has played four games this year against non-divisional opponents and in those four games, they've gone 0-3-1 ATS and 0-4 straight-up. Not only have they lost all four games, but they've lost them by an average of 15.8 points. If you're thinking about betting the Lions, they probably won't feel like a good option either: For the 2020 season, the Lions are 0-3 both straight-up and ATS in home games.
Jaguars (1-7) at Packers (6-2)
Opening line: Packers, -13.5 points
Dating back to Week 3, the Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. Not only are they 0-6 straight-up, but they're also 1-5 ATS in that span. As for the Packers, they're 6-2 ATS on the season, which is tied for the top mark in the NFL. That being said, the Packers are just 1-5 ATS in the past six games where they were favored by double digits. In 2019, the Packers were favored by 13 or more a total of two times and they went 0-2 ATS in those game (2-0 straight-up). The Packers are coming off a bye for this game, which we're only mentioning, because the Packers have lost three straight games coming off a regular season bye. As for the Jaguars, they're 0-6 straight-up and 1-4-1 ATS In the past six games where they were an underdog of 10 or more points.
Opening line: Eagles, -3 points
Although the Eagles have been able to dominate the Giants for the past few years, they haven't always been able to cover against New York. The Eagles have won 10 of their past 11 games against the Giants, but they're just 5-6 ATS in those games. Back in Week 7, the Eagles failed to cover as a 5-point favorite in a 22-21 win over New York. As for the Giants, they've been horrible at home recently, going 3-11 both straight-up and ATS in their past 14 games played at the MetLife Stadium.
Buccaneers (6-3) at Panthers (3-6)
Opening line: Buccaneers, -4.5 points
The Buccaneers are 3-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past four games against the Panthers, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should jump all over them here. One reason to like the Panthers is because home underdogs in divisional games are a very impressive 11-2 ATS this season. Also, Teddy Bridgewater is 15-4 ATS In his career after a straight-up loss. This includes covering on Sunday against the Chiefs after a straight-up loss to the Falcons in Week 8. In his career, Bridgewater is 32-11 ATS (74.4% cover rate), which is the best mark of ay starting quarterback since 2000.
Opening line: Raiders, -4.5 points
The Raiders haven't been dominating the Broncos on the scoreboard over the past few years, but they have been covering. In the past five games between these two teams, the Raiders have gone 5-0 ATS (3-2 straight-up). That being said, the Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road games dating back to last year. Also, the Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS In their past 10 games where they were favored by three points or more.
Opening line: Dolphins, -3 points
Since Week 5 of last season, the Dolphins are 15-5 ATS, which is the best mark of any team in the NFL over that span. The Dolphins are also 6-1 ATS in their past seven games. As for the Chargers, they'll be heading to the Eastern time zone where they've had some serious success. In their past nine games out east, they're 7-2 both straight-up and ATS. One of the two losses came back in Week 4 when L.A. blew a 17-point lead in a 38-31 loss to the Buccaneers. The Chargers are also 12-4-2 ATS In their past 18 road games.
Bills (7-2) at Cardinals (5-3)
Opening line: Cardinals, -1.5 points
For the second straight week, the Bills are playing an NFC team, which they're probably pretty excited about and that's because Buffalo has been dominating them. Including Sunday's win over Seattle, the Bills have won six of their past seven games against NFC teams. As for the Cardinals, they're 3-7 straight-up in their past 10 games against AFC teams, including Sunday's loss to the Dolphins.
Seahawks (6-2) at Rams (5-3)
Opening line: Rams, -1.5 points
If there's one team the Seahawks haven't been able to figure out over the past few years, it's the Los Angeles Rams. In the past five meetings between these two teams, the Rams have gone 4-1 straight-up and a big reason that's happened is because they've been able to pile up points on Seattle's defense. In those five games, the Rams have averaged 33.6 per game and this will be the worst Seahawks' defense L.A. has faced in that span.
Opening line: Saints, -6.5 points
The Saints haven't had any trouble when it comes to winning games this season, but they have had an issue covering the spread. In their past four games, they're 4-0 straight-up, but just 1-3 ATS. As for the 49ers, this game is basically a worst case scenario for them. In their past 10 games where they were an underdog of six or more points, the 49ers are 0-10 straight-up and 2-8 ATS. The only reason you might want to even think about betting the 49ers is because they're 6-1 ATS In their past seven road games (5-2 straight-up).
Opening line: Steelers, -9.5 points
Both of these teams are 6-2 ATS this season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. One reason to bet against the Steelers here is because they almost never cover large point spreads. In the past seven games where they've been favored by nine or more points, the Steelers have gone 0-7 ATS (6-1 straight-up), including Sunday's game against the Cowboys where they didn't cover as a 15.5-point favorite in a 24-19 win. Of course, if there's one time they might cover a large spread, it's when they're playing the Bengals. In the past 13 games between these two teams, the Steelers have gone 12-1 straight-up and 10-3 ATS. The Bengals have covered in six of their past seven games.
Opening line: Ravens, -6.5 points
If there's one guy in the NFL who's almost always a lock to cover on the road, it's Lamar Jackson. Since taking over the Ravens starting job halfway through the 2018 season, Jackson is 11-3-1 ATS in road games. The Ravens are also 10-0 straight-up in the past 10 games where they've been favored by six or more points (7-3 ATS). As for the Patriots, they've been an underdog three times this season and they've lost all three games (1-2 ATS).
Vikings (3-5) at Bears (5-4), Monday
Opening line: Vikings, -2.5 points
The Vikings have been on a roll over the past two weeks, but if there's one team that could end that hot streak, it's the Bears. Not only have the Vikings lost four straight games to the Bears, but Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings between these two teams. The Bears are a home underdog in this game, which might actually be a good thing for them, because they're 14-4-1 ATS in their past 19 games as a home dog (9-10 straight-up).
BYES: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs, Jets
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November 09, 2020 at 07:57PM
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NFL Week 10 early odds: Two division leaders open as underdogs; Packers open as biggest favorite of the week - CBS Sports
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