Open Championship golf is quite distinct from the three other majors, which -- at least in theory -- should lend itself to being easier to predict. The problem? So often players will show up on Open leaderboards from out of nowhere, and Ben Curtis or Darren Clarke (good players but certainly not favorites) will end up holding the Claret Jug on Sunday.
Still, there are trends we can look at and trajectories we can follow. Jordan Spieth is an elite links golfer. So is Xander Schauffele. Brooks Koepka and Scottie Scheffler have posted recent finishes at majors that have been impressive. Rory McIlroy destroys at Opens. These are the types of historical events that make it easier when trying to rank a field of 156 of the best golfers in the world.
So let's take a look at that group of 156 and whittle it down to the 21 most likely to win the 149th Open Championship at Royal St. George's from most likely (Jon Rahm) to 21st most likely (the only man to finish in the top 10 at each of the last two Opens).
Don't forget to take a look at our full set of Open Championship odds, courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook.
1. Jon Rahm (T11 in 2019): The only thing I'm more sure of than Rahm playing well this week is that there is not a beer on the planet he would fail to down in one try out of the Claret Jug. Rahm has been the best golfer at majors so far this season with finishes of T5, T8 and 1 -- in that order -- and he's been the best player in the world in terms of strokes gained against the field for all of 2021. With a win this week, he would become just the fifth golfer since World War II to win both the U.S. Open and Open Championship in the same year.
2. Jordan Spieth (Won in 2017): William Hill Sportsbook has a fun bet this week where you can get Rahm or Spieth to win at +550 odds. I considered putting the college savings we have for all four of our kids on it. Instead, I just did for the younger two. He's been such a terrific Open player for his entire career, and actually enters 2021 playing better than he did in 2017 when he won at Royal Birkdale. From January 1 to that Open, Spieth gained 2.16 strokes per round against the field. This year, he's up to 2.26.
3. Brooks Koepka (T4 in 2019): It remains an oddity to me that so many people who cover golf (myself included!) so often go into a major championship week not necessarily writing Koepka off but remaining unconvinced that he's going to do the thing that's been doing for five years now. Even after four people beat him at the last two majors, I come into The Open thinking, "Eh, I don't know." This is dumb (!), and I'm officially committing to thinking more rightly about Koepka from here on out. He's finished in the top 15 in 17 of his last 21 majors.
4. Xander Schauffele (T2 in 2018): His major record is sterling, and yet I never come into any week thinking, "Yep, this is the one." Though the talent is off the charts, and everyone you talk to in golf is a believer, Schauffele's performance both on the PGA Tour and at major championships in general over the last two years has been strangely underwhelming. His overall game is probably better than somebody like Spieth, but it appears (and this could be wrong and look very dumb in five years, but it appears right now) as if he lacks the intangibles that makes guys multiple-time major winners.
5. Louis Oosthuizen (Won in 2010): There's a real Koepka vibe to Oosthuizen at majors, minus the brooding demeanor and trophies, of course. The harder the tournament and the stouter the field, the better he gets. Oosty has lost to two golfers in the last two majors. He's a mere 12 strokes away from having seven majors over the course of his career.
6. Patrick Reed (10th in 2019): Reed has finished in the top 20 seven consecutive major championships dating back to the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush. He was my pick to win here at the beginning of the calendar year, and while I've obviously waffled on that a bit, I still love the spot he's in going into this week. He's been a plus in every strokes-gained category over the last two months, and his creativity around the greens should play perfectly at an Open Championship.
7. Dustin Johnson (T2 in 2011): D.J. is the only golfer who could come into a major with such little form and it not really pose a problem. If he leads after 36 or 54 holes, it will somehow make sense, even though he's barely contended at a PGA Tour event so far this season. He has just two top 10s anywhere on the PGA Tour, and since March 1 has a worse tee-to-green number than Antoine Rozner and Mito Pereira.
8. Rory McIlroy (Won in 2014): The Open has (maybe surprisingly?) been McIlroy's best major over the last few years, but he comes in with so-so form and no major-winning momentum. Round 1 is almost always a tell for how his week is going to go, and maybe it's a good thing he comes in pretty far under the radar just like he did at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. In all but one of his top-10 finishes at The Open, he's been in the 60s in Round 1.
9. Justin Thomas (T11 in 2019): What I worry about with J.T. is the same thing that concerns me with Bryson DeChambeau (see below). Thomas can get wayward, and that can mean triple or quad in a hurry at a place like Royal St. George's. Still, his creativity with irons and his short game should carry the day, and he's consistently improved at majors over the course of his career with five top 25s in his last seven events.
10. Patrick Cantlay (T12 in 2018): Cantlay has just two top 10s at major championships, which is unsettling. However, he also never misses cuts. He's made 12 of 13 and has some true contention mixed in there. Only Rahm, Paul Casey and Collin Morikawa have been better from tee to green over the last two months.
11. Collin Morikawa (n/a ): This is Collin Morikawa's ... first Open Championship? Due to the COVID-19 pandemic last year, he has not played in golf's oldest major yet, which is bizarre considering he's the No. 4 player in the world. The only thing more confusing than that is his number to win this week, which William Hill pegs at 40-1. Of the six majors played since last August, Morikawa has finished in the top eight in three of them (including a win at the PGA), and he's probably the best iron player in the world at a championship that demands such play.
12. Bryson DeChambeau (T51 in 2018): I just don't see it with DeChambeau this week, and he even sounded a bit hesitant in his pre-tournament press conference. Because of how thick the rough is at Royal St. George's, he said misses are punished more than normal, which might mitigate what he does best. He's never even finished in the top 50 at an Open Championship.
13. Scottie Scheffler (n/a): This is also Scheffler's first Open. While Oosthuizen has some Koepka in him at majors, Scheffler has some Xander in him. He's played in six of them as a pro and only finished outside the top 20 once. His solid play at the Scottish Open last week combined with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open are nice foreshadowing for this week.
14. Shane Lowry (2019): Do I expect him to go back to back? Not really (it hasn't happened in 13 years), but his game is in a tremendous spot (11th from tee to green over the last two months) and contention on the weekend would not be surprising at all given how well he's been playing. He said before the tournament that he's glad to feel a bit uncomfortable after a mediocre U.S. Open because it keeps him more alert and focused on every single shot he's hitting.
15. Tyrrell Hatton (T5 in 2016): Nice under-the-radar play here. He has top-six finishes in two of his last four Opens and played well at the Scottish Open last week. I do worry about him mentally a bit regarding some of the breaks players will see this week, but his ball-striking is good enough to win a major championship. He's England's best chance to win an Open on English soil for the first time since Tony Jacklin did so at Royal Lytham and St. Anne's in 1969.
16. Viktor Hovland (n/a): Another first-timer! Though he has yet to miss a cut at a major, he also has yet to finish in the top 10 at any of them. Though his short game is improved, I'm not sure it's as creative as it will need to be for him to win The Open. He's (slightly) losing strokes around the greens over the last few months. Still, his ball-striking is plenty to net him his best-ever finish at a major.
17. Tommy Fleetwood (2nd in 2019): Fleetwood has not had his best couple of years, but I'm hesitant to leave him off this list at an Open. He played well at the Irish Open and Scottish Open over the last two weeks, and he was runner up to Lowry in 2019. I don't necessarily expect it, but there should be zero surprises if he's in it on Saturday afternoon.
18. Paul Casey (T3 in 2010): He's hard to ignore. Nobody has been better over the last two months from tee to green. Though his Open record is not great, he does have more top 10s at majors in the last three months than he had in the previous three years.
19. Abraham Ancer (MC in 2019): I'm a believer. I haven't been to this point, but he's tough as hell and he's been flushing it for several months. He's also extraordinarily fun to watch when he's in contention.
20. Daniel Berger (T27 in 2017): Berger has only played in three Opens (which, again, is bizarre), but I love him coming into this week. He had his first top 10 at a major since 2018 at the U.S. Open earlier this summer, and his ball flight is wonderful for links golf.
21. Tony Finau (3rd in 2019): I don't make the rules.
Who will win the Open Championship, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors, including Jon Rahm's epic U.S. Open victory.
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July 14, 2021 at 12:11AM
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2021 British Open predictions, picks: Ranking the top of the field from 1-21 at Royal St. George's - CBS Sports
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