Bay Area counties are nowhere near meeting the governor’s criteria for reopening some parts of the state ahead of others. Even though most of the region was planning to move at a slower pace anyway, the gaps between who’s ready and who’s not underscore just how varied the coronavirus outbreak has been across California.
Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday that the reopening metrics he announced a day earlier apply only to counties that would like to move at a faster pace than the state as a whole. So even though most large, urban counties won’t meet those goals anytime soon — maybe not until the virus is wiped out by a vaccine — at some point in the coming weeks the state will likely relax shelter-in-place restrictions regardless, once there are other signs that the outbreak is under control.
“It’s incumbent upon us to recognize ... regional variability,” Newsom said Friday at his daily coronavirus briefing. “We want to give people flexibility to loosen quicker (or) to maintain more strict guidelines based upon conditions on the ground.”
He noted that the Bay Area and Los Angeles in particular would be slower to emerge from sheltering in place. But nearly two dozen counties have approached his office about reopening ahead of the rest of the state, he said. If the state approves their requests then they could move further into what Newsom has labeled “phase two” of recovery.
In those counties, some restaurants, shopping malls, nonessential manufacturing companies and open-space museums and galleries could open as early as next week. Counties that don’t meet the strict early-opening criteria can at best allow curbside retail sales to resume.
“I know there is deep anxiety. People are feeling a desire to reopen,” Newsom said. “We will be deeper into the next phase sooner than most people believe. That’s weeks, not months, that we together can move into the deeper phase if we continue that good work and good progress.”
Six Bay Area counties — Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara — have extended a regional shelter-in-place order through the end of the month, and they announced their own criteria for relaxing social-distancing protocols. None of the six counties are yet meeting all of those goals.
Napa and Sonoma counties planned to allow curbside retail to resume right away. Solano County is allowing some retail businesses to open for in-store shopping, seemingly in defiance of the state orders. No other Bay Area counties intended to allow any similar resumption of retail business.
It’s not obvious which, if any, of California’s 58 counties have met Newsom’s criteria for early reopening. Three counties — Butte, Yuba and Sutter — have started easing restrictions, some without state approval. Nevada County, which meets at least some of the benchmarks, announced Friday it’s also pulling back its local stay-at-home order.
Much of the metrics data are difficult to get from counties, and some of Newsom’s goals are vague or not clearly defined.
Cases: Counties must report no more than one case per 10,000 residents over the last 14 days.
The Chronicle considered that to mean that the number of “new” cases reported over a 14-day period could not exceed one per 10,000 residents. State officials were unable to immediately provide clarity.
As of Friday, 27 counties — most of them in rural parts of Northern California or the Sierra — met that benchmark, as well as Santa Cruz County. No counties in the Bay Area had met the goal, though some were closer than others.
Over the past two weeks, Santa Clara, Contra Costa, Marin, Sonoma and Napa counties had the lowest case rates in the Bay Area, between 1.5 and 1.8 cases per 10,000 residents. San Francisco had the highest, at 5.8 cases per 10,000 residents. While tests have become more widely available throughout the region, different policies on who can receive them could skew data.
Deaths: Counties cannot report any COVID-19 deaths for 14 days — a goal that only Napa County is meeting in the Bay Area. Thirty-two counties in all have met this goal, although some of those counties still have high case rates. Some rural counties, mostly in Northern California, have not had any deaths from the coronavirus.
But Santa Clara County had 32 deaths in the past two weeks, and Los Angeles County reported more than 600 deaths. Given those statistics, it seems highly unlikely that any large county will go two weeks without any deaths in the coming months, let alone weeks.
Testing: Counties must have the capacity to conduct 1.5 tests daily per 1,000 residents.
Capacity is a difficult metric to quantify, since many counties have reported that they have enough tests to meet their local goals, but they have trouble getting tests to those who need them. For example, some community testing sites are underutilized, while hospitals and nursing homes report not being able to test everyone who needs it.
In the Bay Area, only San Francisco is meeting the state goal, doing about 1.6 tests daily per 1,000 residents. Six other counties are conducting well below one test per 1,000 residents. Two counties — Solano and Sonoma — do not report daily testing numbers online and current data were not immediately available.
Tracing: Contact tracing is a key component of reopening because it allows counties to quickly investigate and contain new infections before they can spread. Newsom’s early-opening metrics demand 15 contact tracers per 100,000 residents.
Based on current staffing reports, no Bay Area counties are meeting this criteria. San Francisco, which has undergone a massive training effort in recent weeks, comes closest, with about 12 contact tracers per 100,000 residents. Three counties — Napa, Solano and Sonoma — have not reported the current size of their staffs.
Homeless: To open early, counties will need to show that they can temporarily house at least 15% of county residents experiencing homelessness. From the limited guidelines that have been published so far, it’s unclear how the state will measure local homeless populations and what will be considered “temporarily housed.”
More detailed information is supposed to be released next week.
Hospitals: Newsom requires that counties be able to meet a surge of at least 35% in hospital bed demand, in case of a sudden rise in COVID-19 cases.
Most counties don’t report hospital capacity in a way that makes it easy to determine if they’re meeting that goal. But Bay Area counties have not been overwhelmed with coronavirus patients so far. Among counties that report hospital data, all are well below capacity.
Nursing homes: Skilled nursing facilities must have a two-week supply of personal protective equipment for workers, and they must have access to resources other than state supplies.
Few counties make this information readily available. Six Bay Area counties have stated goals of requiring a 30-day supply of equipment for nursing homes, along with hospitals and other health care facilities. None of them are currently meeting that goal.
Erin Allday and Joaquin Palomino are San Francisco Chronicle staff writers. Email: eallday@sfchronicle.com, jpalomino@sfchronicle.com
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How close are Bay Area counties to meeting state criteria for reopening? Nowhere near - San Francisco Chronicle
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