Bulgaria’s do-over elections ended too close to call, with an exit poll showing former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s party ahead of the anti-establishment movement of talk-show host and entertainer Stanislav Trifonov by a narrow margin.
Borissov’s Gerb won 23.5% of Sunday’s parliamentary ballot and Trifonov’s party, known as ITN, won 22.3%, according to an exit poll conducted by Alpha Research on BNT public television. The Socialists and the anti-graft Democratic Bulgaria were tied in third with 14.1%. Six parties were shown entering parliament
If confirmed by official figures, which will start trickling in later in the evening, the result may produce a hung parliament and extend a political crisis that has hampered the country’s efforts to improve the European Union’s lowest living standards and worst corruption.
In the initial ballot held in April, a better-than-expected showing by ITN blocked Borissov from a fourth term, as all other political parties refused to work with Gerb in government. Still, no other party could muster majority support for a cabinet either, which triggered a re-run of the vote. The do-over looked set to produce a similar deadlock.
“There’s no configuration of parties, at least out of those who’ve declared that they could work together, that can form a majority” government, Boryana Dimitrova, managing partner at Alpha Research, said on BNT.
President Rumen Radev will give the winner of the election the first chance to create a ruling coalition. If it fails, the second-placed party gets a turn. If that doesn’t work, a third will be chosen by the president for a last try before new elections are called.
“Until we have the parallel count and likely the votes from abroad, the question for the winner remains open,” Dimitrova said. The Alpha poll didn’t include a survey of voters from abroad, which heavily favored ITN in the first go-around.
Slavi Trifonov during a concert as part of his campaigning for a referendum on political issues, in Sofia.
Under Borissov, the country of 7 million has remained in last place in the EU in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. While living standards have improved they remain at about half of the bloc’s average. Brussels has also criticized Bulgaria for failing to uphold the rule of law and has kept the country out of the passport-free travel Schengen zone.
Trifonov, a performer of the Balkan analog of gangster rap and the host of Bulgaria’s most popular late-night talk-show for almost two decades, has been railing against inequality and corruption even before Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007. Also known as “Slavi,” he has pledged to fight a “mafia model” he says gives oligarchs with ties to organized crime sway over politics.
The country is also struggling under the administration that took charge in the interim to roll out immunizations. Just 12% of the population is fully vaccinated — the least in the EU — and demand for shots has evaporated.
Both Borissov and Trifonov say they favor deepening ties with the EU, though each has signaled resistance to the bloc’s efforts to open membership talks with neighboring North Macedonia, citing long-standing historical disputes.
Borissov wants Bulgaria to adopt the euro by 2024. Trifonov wants the currency too, but his adviser Toshko Yordanov, deputy chairman of There Is Such a People, warns against any “premature” move.
All mainstream parties are refusing to rule with Gerb, creating an enormous hurdle for Borissov to clinch a new term. Trifonov, who isn’t running for parliament himself, has said it’s not his goal to become premier.
He’s potentially better placed to form a ruling coalition. His most-likely allies include two parties, Democratic Bulgaria and Rise Up! Thugs Out!, but the exit poll showed them winning only 110 seats, below the 121 they would need to have a majority in parliament.
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