- Henri is expected to strengthen over the western Atlantic.
- Henri may track close to eastern New England and Long Island late weekend into early next week.
- High surf and rip currents are expected along the East Coast by late week.
Tropical Storm Henri is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the Atlantic, but its exact path and strength when it draws closer to New England are still uncertain.
Residents of the Northeast U.S., especially New England and Long Island, should monitor Henri's progress closely since it might bring wind, rain and storm surge impacts to parts of the region late weekend into early next week. Hurricane and/or tropical storm watches could be required for these areas by Friday.
Henri is located more than 800 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and is moving west at 10 mph.
The storm is somewhat disorganized right now because it's battling wind shear and dry air.
Forecast Track, Intensity Uncertain
Henri is forecast to turn toward the northwest late this week, followed by a turn toward the north and eventually the north-northeast. This more northerly track will be influenced by the steering from a ridge of high pressure over the north-central Atlantic and an upper-level disturbance over the eastern U.S.
Some decrease in wind shear could allow Henri to intensify into a hurricane as it turns about and tracks off the East Coast into the weekend.
Henri's circulation center is likely to move within the forecast path shown below, but whether this track is directly into New England or some distance off the East Coast will be determined by the outcome of the steering pattern mentioned above.
Current Status, Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the system. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical system usually spread beyond its forecast path)For now, the National Hurricane Center forecasts Henri to be weakening from a Category 1 hurricane to a strong tropical storm as it approaches New England because the system will encounter cooler waters and some possible increased wind shear during that time.
Henri's forward progress could also slow down on approach to New England because of blocking high pressure to its north over Quebec.
The bottom line is that Henri could bring wind, rain and storm surge impacts to at least parts of New England and Long Island beginning as soon as the late weekend. Those in New England and Long Island should keep up to date and make preparations for possible impacts.
In general, here's an outline from the National Weather Service (NWS) in Boston of what the impacts could be in relation to the future track of Henri:
- Damaging wind: highest winds will be focused east of the track.
- Flooding rain: heaviest rain should be focused along/west of the track.
- Storm surge flooding: focused east of the track.
The NWS mentions that tides will also be running higher than normal this weekend, which could worsen the impact of any storm surge flooding.
The National Hurricane Center noted on Thursday that the wind field of Henri should grow in size the farther north it tracks. That means impacts could occur quite a distance away from where the actual center of Henri tracks.
East Coast High Surf, Rip Current Threat
One impact from Henri that is more certain is that it will send increased swells to the East Coast by late week.
High surf and life-threatening rip currents could impact beaches from parts of the Southeast to the mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. The high surf and rip currents will then spread northward up the East Coast this weekend.
Forecast Wave Heights
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August 19, 2021 at 06:18PM
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