If COVID-19 cases increase, will Arizona schools have to close again? Here's what health officials say - The Arizona Republic

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Lily Altavena Arizona Republic

Published 12:27 PM EDT Sep 16, 2020

The decision to close schools in March due to COVID-19 was swift: An announcement by Gov. Doug Ducey shuttered buildings in just a day as the state braced for the virus' impact. 

Now, one by one, public schools in Arizona are opening their doors again to students. 

But while the number of COVID-19 cases has declined steadily in Arizona, it's possible virus spread could speed up again. But it does not appear that schools would close again under a blanket order. 

Instead, it's more likely that decisions will happen school by school, depending on the level of spread in a community and whether a school itself is facing an outbreak. 

"A lot of it's going to depend on what that school and what that specific school board in that county wants to do," Dr. Cara Christ, director of the Arizona Department of Health Services, said. 

Weighing the data 

State health officials narrowed state COVID-19 metrics to three data points in deciding when to reopen schools: 

• A decline in COVID cases for two consecutive weeks, or a rate of cases lower than 100 cases per 100,000. 
• An infection rate below 7% for two consecutive weeks.
• Hospital visits for COVID-like illnesses remaining below 10% for two consecutive weeks.

County health officials crunch those numbers by ZIP code and school district to show areas where spread is substantial, moderate and minimal. In areas where spread is moderate or minimal, health guidelines recommend schools open. 

Likewise, if numbers rise above the benchmarks set by the state for two consecutive weeks, health officials recommend schools return to virtual learning, Christ said. 

"If one of the metrics returns to substantial spread ... We recommend that they start preparing for virtual learning," she said. 

But the final decision won't be made by state health officials, she said. Instead, it'll come down to local school boards.

Jill Humpherys, a board member in Gilbert, said she's carefully studied the state's health metrics since they were unveiled.

Schools in Gilbert opened for in-person learning on Sept. 8, but only up to half of a school's students are on campus on the same day. Students are on an alternating schedule and will return to a full-week schedule on Sept. 21, if case levels remain low.

"My hope is that people will be really motivated to do the things that will keep our metrics good: Wear a mask, wash their hands, socially distance, stay home when possible," Humpherys said. 

Reach the reporter at Lily.Altavena@ArizonaRepublic.com or follow her on Twitter @LilyAlta.

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If COVID-19 cases increase, will Arizona schools have to close again? Here's what health officials say - The Arizona Republic
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