2021 U.S. Open odds: Surprising PGA picks, golf predictions from advanced model that called six majors - CBSSports.com

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The home of this week's 2021 U.S. Open, the South Course at Torrey Pines was the venue where Tiger Woods turned in one of the most historic victories in the history of golf. Playing with a stress fracture in his leg and ligament damage in his knee, Woods battled Rocco Mediate down the stretch, making a dramatic birdie putt on the 72nd green, tying Mediate in the 18-hole Monday playoff, and ultimately prevailing in a playoff. The victory was Woods' third U.S. Open triumph and 14th major championship.

Woods won't be in the 2021 U.S. Open field when play begins on Thursday, June 17, but Jon Rahm is the 10-1 favorite in the latest 2021 U.S. Open odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Phil Mickelson, who won the PGA Championship last month, is a 50-1 long shot. Before locking in any 2021 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the 2021 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour last June. In fact, it's up well over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the Masters in April, McClure nailed Jon Rahm's (+250) top-five finish, as well as Corey Conners' (+550) top-10 showing. McClure's best bets netted over $450 at the Masters.

In addition, McClure was all over Daniel Berger's win at +1400 in his best bets at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. McClure also nailed Viktor Hovland's (+2500) victory in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he's made in the past several months. He also finished profitable at the 2020 U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff.

This same model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2021 U.S. Open field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard.

The model's top 2021 U.S. Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2021: DeChambeau, the defending U.S. Open champion and one of the top favorites, struggles and fails to crack the top 10. DeChambeau has been one of the hottest players on tour this season, finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2020 U.S. Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The eight-time PGA Tour champion has been explosive off the tee this season, ranking first in driving distance at 322.5 yards, but those long bombs haven't been regularly finding the fairway. In fact, he ranks 178th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (54.63 percent). He only has one top-10 finish since March and finished outside the top 30 in the three majors since his U.S. Open win last year. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2021 U.S. Open field.

Another surprise: Webb Simpson, a massive 33-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the 2021 U.S. Open title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 35-year-old veteran has already captured America's national golf championship, winning the 2012 U.S. Open at Olympic Club in San Francisco after a final-round 68.

Simpson also has two other U.S. Open top-10s on his resume, finishing 10th in 2018 and eighth last year. Simpson has made the cut in 16 straight majors, a streak that began with the 2016 Open Championship. The 12th-ranked player in the world has also enjoyed a strong spring, finishing sixth in the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession, 12th at the Masters and ninth at the RBC Heritage. A player with the mettle necessary to win in golf's most democratic test, Simpson is primed for a deep run as part of your 2021 U.S. Open bets, according to the model.

How to make 2021 U.S. Open picks

The model is targeting three other golfers with U.S. Open odds 2021 higher than 15-1 to make a strong run at the title. Its best bets also include two massive long shots higher than 50-1 that would net any bettor an epic payday. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the U.S. Open 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed six golf majors and is up well over $9,000 since the restart.

2021 U.S. Open odds

Jon Rahm 10-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Dustin Johnson 14-1
Rory McIlroy 14-1
Jordan Spieth 14-1
Bryson DeChambeau 14-1
Brooks Koepka 14-1
Collin Morikawa 18-1
Xander Schauffele 18-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Viktor Hovland 25-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Webb Simpson 33-1
Patrick Reed 33-1
Daniel Berger 33-1
Tony Finau 33-1
Will Zalatoris 33-1
Tyrrell Hatton 40-1
Louis Oosthuizen 40-1
Justin Rose 40-1
Scottie Scheffler 40-1
Tommy Fleetwood 40-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1
Shane Lowry 50-1
Sung-Jae Im 50-1
Cameron Smith 50-1
Phil Mickelson 50-1
Rickie Fowler 50-1
Abraham Ancer 60-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Joaquin Niemann 60-1
Marc Leishman 66-1
Sam Burns 66-1
Adam Scott 66-1
Lee Westwood 66-1
Jason Day 66-1
Sergio Garcia 66-1
Gary Woodland 70-1
Jason Kokrak 70-1
Harris English 80-1
Branden Grace 90-1
Max Homa 100-1
Brandt Snedeker 100-1
Bubba Watson 100-1
Matthew Wolff 100-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100-1
Si-Woo Kim 100-1
Robert Macintyre 125-1
Brian Harman 125-1
Sebastian Munoz 125-1
Billy Horschel 125-1
Cameron Champ 125-1
Carlos Ortiz 125-1
Garrick Higgo 125-1
Kevin Streelman 125-1
Russell Henley 125-1
Matt Wallace 125-1
Stewart Cink 125-1
Kevin Na 150-1
Victor Perez 150-1
Ryan Palmer 150-1
Zach Johnson 150-1
Alex Noren 150-1
Kevin Kisner 150-1
Thomas Pieters 150-1
Brendon Todd 150-1
Matt Kuchar 150-1
Francesco Molinari 150-1
Bernd Wiesberger 150-1
Ian Poulter 150-1
Matt Jones 150-1
Mackenzie Hughes 200-1
Ryo Ishikawa 200-1
Henrik Stenson 200-1
Chez Reavie 200-1
Lanto Griffin 200-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 200-1
Erik Van Rooyen 200-1
Martin Kaymer 200-1
Wade Ormsby 250-1
Johannes Veerman 250-1
Wilco Nienaber 250-1
Paul Barjon 300-1
Jimmy Walker 300-1
Graeme McDowell 300-1
Brad Kennedy 300-1
Yosuke Asaji 300-1
Eric Cole 300-1
Joe Long 500-1
Ty Strafaci 500-1

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